It's one thing to say that we're going to innovate a new product, process or program. Innovation occurs on a continuum from predictability to unpredictability. We can research and model to determine predictability of success. In some cases this is accurate and reliable. In others, things are more unpredictable. Our concern about predictability often emerges from concern about the risks of investment. We only want to invest in success. Unpredictability means risks.
This is where agility makes a difference. An agile innovation is one where we design in adaptability to unpredictability. This supports iterating our unpredictability into success.